Tag: Networking

Problems for NBNco revenue growth over the next 8 months

After tonight’s earlier post, I have along with JXeeno of myNBN.info have taken the time to model the newly discovered rollout delays into the statistics system over there and graphed them out.

The results are published below, and are  very troubling for NBNco and supporters of the project.

The impact of premises passed and able to connect to the NBN in the next 8 months will grow much slower than previously anticipated. Click for full size.

The impact of premises passed and able to connect to the NBN in the next 8 months will grow much slower than previously anticipated.

The biggest problem you will see here is that the growth of connected premises will have a significant hole up until April 2014 when the growth of premises passed will start to come on stream properly. NBNco has consistently called this the ramp up. We have already have seen the initial ramp-up in May, June and July this year, where the active premises has jumped considerably, adding well over double the amount of previously passed premises.

So what happens when you do not pass premises? Well for one, they cannot connect. Now with NBNco looking for all the revenues it can get while paying Telstra the first $7million of it’s disconnection bounties, it would seem that you would want people on the network as quickly as possible. Making the total market size smaller will only reduce the increases in revenues which NBNco would have dearly loved.

It is way too early for any real data on exactly how bad this will be. The only silver lining is that with take up rates very strong and at higher speeds than anticipated, NBNco CEO Mike Quigley stated at the Joint Parliamentary Committee in Sydney on April 19th that they were was expecting to beat its $15million revenue target for FY13. This along with Connectivity Virtual Circuit (CVC) charges which have been levied against RSP’s for allowing bandwidth onto the NBN Network to their customers has also been much higher than budgeted and is also helping significantly to the revenue base of NBNco and certainly faster than was planned. It will take time to model exactly the impact of these figures, but data of takeup rates due to be released under FOI requests in the next 3-4 weeks will help.

Thankfully, the numbers planned for completion in May 2014 are almost back on par with previously planned number, while June 2014 will see the deficit being cleared completely and beaten by around 56,000 premises, while July 2014 is now also ahead of the previous forecasts. But the damage will have already been done and the revenues since earlier in the financial year will not have been there.

A bit of free advice for NBNco:

  • Get your Fixed Wireless towers up, right now. Time to push Ericsson to pull back the deficits in all states, and especially WA and SA. You need to be ahead of plan by the end of this calendar year, and the towers not only need to be active but have active RSP’s on their Points of Interconnect (I’m talking about Dubbo WSAMs and also 2HOM-01 recently where the FSAM was activated but Lidcombe POI was not. I am sure there are other examples.
  • Make sure that areas already active have sufficient resources applied to them in order for connections to be made. Horror stories on Whirlpool of people going to the back of the line due to either civil works required, or contractors just not turning up because it was a bit wet simply is not good enough. An appointment missed is revenue missed for 2 months.
  • Get more MDU’s on deck. Your contractors dealing with them are slow and inefficient. Your communication to Owners Corporations is rather dire where nobody knows what is going on and contractors have not got the information.
  • Make a database that can be searched along with the name of the MDU, the address, and the contact point of the Owner’s Corporation if known. Has the MDU made contact with NBNco? Has permission been granted by the Owners Corporation to have the fibre installed? This would all help people chase their development for you.

HP lists G8 Microservers on website

Thanks to sorted who spotted the Microserver G8’s are listed on the HP website. The two models are listed at USD$449 and USD$529 respectively on the HP website, a bit cheaper than what was expected.

MicroServer Gen8 G1610T – USD$449

Processor family
Processor:     Intel® Celeron® G1610T (2 core, 2.3 GHz, 2MB, 35W)
Number of processors:     1
Processor cores:     2

Memory
Standard memory:     2GB (1x2GB) UDIMM
Maximum memory:     16GB
Memory slots:     2 DIMM slots
Memory protection:     Unbuffered ECC

I/O
Expansion slots:     (1) PCIe
For detail descriptions reference the QuickSpec
Network controller:     1Gb 332i Ethernet Adapter 2 Ports per controller

Hard drives
Storage controller:     (1) Dynamic Smart Array B120i/ZM

Power supply
Power supply:     (1) 150W non-hot plug, non redundant power supply kit Multi-output

Rack height
Rack height:     MicroServer

MicroServer Gen8 G2020T – USD$529

Processor family
Processor:     Intel® Pentium® G2020T (2 core, 2.5 GHz, 3MB, 35W)
Number of processors:     1
Processor cores:     2

Memory
Standard memory:     2GB (1x2GB) UDIMM
Maximum memory:     16GB
Memory slots:     2 DIMM slots
Memory protection:     Unbuffered ECC

I/O
Expansion slots:     (1) PCIe
For detail descriptions reference the QuickSpec
Network controller:     1Gb 332i Ethernet Adapter 2 Ports per controller

Hard drives
Storage controller:     (1) Dynamic Smart Array B120i/ZM

Power supply
Power supply:     (1) 150W non-hot plug, non redundant power supply kit Multi-output

Rack height
Rack height:     MicroServer

 

It’s not a Microserver, it’s a Micro-Ecosystem for IT

The beta program for the upcoming HP Microserver G8 is in full swing. At least two beta units are out in the field within my sphere of contacts, however I refused the offer to take part in any beta after the removal by the HP Microsevers page on Facebook.

Some of the details I have been leaked by internal HP contacts is only now becoming clear. I was given the follow images last week from someone inside HP.

Microserver_G8_Side Microserver_G8_Stacked

These show a very modular unit, indeed stackable with other Microserver-like chassis units. This feature was considered to be a part of the external storage unit, however with that also confirmed as no longer happening, the modular design seemed to have been a hangover of the previous product development and design.

That is until today. A source familiar with the beta program has passed on the information of a

“stackable unit, smaller in height than the Microserver unit itself, for backup purposes”.

This highly curious information could mean any of the following devices could be on the way:

  • A single high capacity hard disk of 3TB or 4TB;
  • An RDX unit that uses a hard drive in a removable cartridge format; or
  • An LTO4/5 tape backup unit.

Considering the four USB ports on the back, all quite possible scenarios. Of these, I think the RDX unit most likely as this unit is being targeted at the smaller remote offices where a simple backup solution is often lacking.

Another beta tester has raised the possibility of another component that they have actually received and are testing. While I cannot divulge this information yet as it may be traceable back to the end user due to forums I frequent. That said, I was surprised that this sort of module is available and currently testing with customers, but is a brilliant move by HP.

Finally, we found this on a slide from an internal HP source… I wonder what this could be?

Microserver_G8_OrangeVariant

The plot thickens!

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